April 29, 2014
The total 3D printing (3DP) market will nearly quadruple to $12 billion in 2025, according to Lux Research.
In the report "How 3D Printing Adds Up: Emerging Materials, Processes, Applications, and Business Models" issued by Lux Research, the analysts note that 3D printers alone will be worth $3.2 billion, while $2 billion will represent formulated materials; $7 billion will come from the value of parts produced, according to Lux's model.
"Consumer uses of 3D printing attract most of the headlines, but industrial uses, from molds and tooling to actual production parts, are quietly having the greatest impact," said Anthony Vicari, Lux Research Associate and the lead author of the report.
"However, the field is still just getting started; advances in processing and printable materials technology are still necessary for future growth," he added.
Lux Research analysts interviewed nearly 100 companies in the 3D printing industry and developed a model incorporating industry-specific material and market requirements, as well as historical adoption rates of new materials. They reveal their findings in the report:
- Razor/blade model is a hurdle. Much like conventional "2D" printer makers, 3D printer companies often sell formulated materials at a steep mark-up 10 times to 100 times. This approach was tolerable when companies only used 3D printers for prototyping, but it remains a major impediment to the use of 3DP for production parts, as leaders such as 3D Systems, Stratasys, and EOS restrict third-party materials suppliers from entering the market.
- Four printer companies dominate the market. On the Lux Innovation Grid, only four printer companies placed in the "Dominant" category, based on technical and business scores. They are: 3D Systems, Stratasys, EOS and Arcam. The four hold a combined 31% printer market share. Of these, Arcam is distinguished by its open materials supply model. Among independent materials suppliers, a clutch of companies Raymor Industries, Made Solid and Ceralink, among them offers "high potential," but none is dominant.
- Expiring patents will trigger growth. In 2006, expiration of several early patent families enabled the emergence of lower-cost desktop printers from companies like Makerbot, as well as consumer-facing 3DP services like Shapeways, raising popular interest in the technology. An even bigger shift is coming as patents on other key 3D printing technologies start to expire over the next three years, lowering costs for those methods and widening the range of capabilities available to users.
Posted in 3D Printing Technology
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